Calgary Home Prices: Fact vs. Fiction in 2025 and Beyond
Alberta Real Estate and Rental Market Update: Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge & Medicine Hat
September 1, 2025 - Written by Jamie Palmer, President & Broker of Power Properties
The Clickbait Headlines
Headlines like “Calgary home prices to fall by $100,000 in the next two years!” are designed to grab attention — but they don’t always tell the full story. While the prediction makes for a dramatic headline, it’s important to step back, look at history, and understand the real factors shaping Calgary and Alberta’s housing market.
Historical Price Drops and Recoveries
For context, Calgary's average detached home price went from an annual average price of $460,000 in 2008 to $442,000 in 2009 as a result of the Global Financial Crisis, and then went back up to an annual average of $461,000 in 2010. (Source Calgary Real Estate Board)
Similarly, the market dropped from $553,000 in 2014 to $533,000 in 2015, as a result of negative oil prices, and then bounced back to $573,000 in 2016. (Source Calgary Real Estate Board)
Why a $100,000 Drop Is Unlikely
So the notion that Calgary's detached home builders are going to build so much unchecked inventory that they will just keep building and building as inventories grow and prices decline, to the tune of $100,000, is somewhat absurd, and really just "clickbait". The article itself notes this is a worst-case scenario. Alberta has built more homes this year than any other province in Canada, despite having a smaller population than Ontario or B.C. However, Alberta housing starts are expected to slow down in 2026.
Detached home builders are able to adjust how many homes they build much faster and easier than multi-family projects:
Once you start an apartment tower, you pretty much have to finish it
You can choose to not start the next block/phase of a residential development until current inventories are absorbed
Alberta’s Construction Boom and Migration
There is an interesting side effect to Alberta’s housing construction boom: it’s bringing more people to Alberta.
People are moving to Alberta because we have affordable housing
People are also moving to Alberta to build those houses
As noted in the Fraser Institute report, home starts in Ontario and B.C. are actually down year-over-year. If you are in the trades in Ontario or B.C., you are likely hard-pressed to find work, whereas in Alberta, we are hard-pressed to find trades. Even as international immigration slows, inter-provincial immigration continues to be steady, with Alberta (Calgary and Edmonton specifically) being the destination of choice. Calgary was recently named the top city in Canada to live.
So while rents are declining across Canada, they are actually increasing in Edmonton (did I mention we now have Realtors and Property Managers in Edmonton).
Uncertainties on the Horizon
There are definitely some unknowns over the next two years.
On the negative side:
The impact of tariffs, both directly on jobs and hiring, and more broadly, as they are already slowing the global economy, in turn decreasing the demand and price of oil, which impacts Alberta
The impact of AI on jobs, as we are already seeing increased layoffs, and junior positions being replaced by AI
On the positive side:
The new federal government may be more open to building pipelines, carbon capture projects, and other infrastructure projects, all of which would benefit Alberta
Increased projects would mean more jobs, more inter-provincial immigration, and greater demand for housing
Interest Rates and Market Forces
If the Canadian economy slows, the Bank of Canada will likely reduce interest rates, which will reduce the interest rate on variable-rate loans.
The US Federal Reserve is giving signals that it will reduce interest rates, reducing bond rates, which will lower fixed mortgage rates in Canada (mortgage rates follow bond rates).
If interest rates go down, demand for housing will increase and prices will go up.
The Most Likely Scenario
How interest rates, AI, tariffs, and nation-building projects collide is hard to predict, but my expectation is:
Short-term (this year): a decline in house prices due to tariff uncertainty and related job losses
Medium-term (2026–2027): a new trade deal with the USA (CUSMA renegotiation), lower interest rates, a construction boom, and large-scale projects will likely lead to price growth
Sometimes you have to cut through the noise, like AI-generated housing models, to get a clear picture of what is actually happening.
Looking Ahead in Calgary’s Market
Housing headlines may come and go, but Alberta’s market has always shown resilience. Looking ahead, migration, construction trends, interest rates, and global forces will continue to drive opportunities across the province.
At Power Properties, we’re here to help you navigate those changes with both property management and real estate services in Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge, and Medicine Hat.
👉 Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, connect with our team today for a free consultation and clear advice on your next move.
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Written by Jamie Palmer, President & Broker of Power Properties
Jamie Palmer is the President and Broker of Power Properties. He holds a Certified Property Manager (CPM®) designation, the highest designation in Property Management in North America. He earned an Honors degree from the University of Toronto, and he has over two decades of experience in property management.
About Power Properties
Founded in 1980, Power Properties has been providing hassle-free property management services to property owners, property investors and non-residents with homes in Calgary, Lethbridge and Medicine Hat for over four decades. Our full-service property management includes everything from move in to move out, so you don’t have to worry about the day-to-day operations of your rental property. With a team of licensed professionals, years of experience, and award-winning service, you can rest assured that your property is in good hands.
